Cotati, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

027
FXUS66 KMTR 010932
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
232 AM PDT Fri Aug 1 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 228 AM PDT Fri Aug 1 2025

 - Deep marine layer, coastal drizzle mornings

 - Gusty winds likely Sunday afternoon into Monday evening.
   Highest along the coast, Altamont Pass, and Salinas Valley.

 - Quieter weather restored after Monday. Subtle warming trend mid
   next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 228 AM PDT Fri Aug 1 2025
(Today and tonight)

Very well-defined and deep marine layer persists this morning
penetrating well inland and providing a refreshing shot of heavy
drizzle along coastal areas overnight. In fact, several locations
along the coast and East Bay Hills have seen a few hundredths of an
inch of precip over the last 24 hours. There is potential for
another round of this weather tonight as high surface pressure over
the waters reinforces robust onshore flow and a subtle upward
vertical motion promotes a deep marine layer.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 228 AM PDT Fri Aug 1 2025
(Saturday through Thursday)

Still on track for a quick bout of gusty winds Sunday and Monday as
a weak upper low moves in to the PacNW. There is a consistent trend
where guidance has been nudging this trough a bit further north,
limiting its impact on us. Sunday and Monday afternoons still look
to be rather gusty, especially along the coastal areas and known
windy spots such as the San Bruno Gap and Altamont Pass. Still not
thinking this will be an "advisory level" event, but definitely
worth a mention for those traveling and recreating.

Beyond the windy period Sunday and Monday, there is a confident
signal for a warming trend through the middle of next week, but this
will likely only take us to about 5 degrees or so above normal for
interior areas. Otherwise, it`s back to our boring pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 935 PM PDT Thu Jul 31 2025

Satellite based enhanced IR night fog imagery is showing an early
push of low stratus across the majority of the Bay Area and
Central Coast. The exception is in the North Bay, where the
ceilings will take another couple hours to roll in. So far this
evening the ceilings have come in faster and lower than expected.
These observations have caused LAMP guidance to become more
pessimistic throughout the TAF period. There is now a shorter
clearing period expected tomorrow after IFR-LIFR ceiling and
visibility impacts early Friday morning.

Vicinity of SFO...The ceilings formed roughly 3 hours earlier than
expected at both SFO and OAK this evening and the stratus layer is
now firmly entrenched. There is a 25% chance the ceiling height
drops below 500 feet at SFO before 15Z, with closer to 45% chance
at OAK. A brief clearing window is expected Friday afternoon,
though the latest forecast trend has been shrinking the VFR
period.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Poor conditions are expected at MRY
tonight as the ceilings came in early at only 300 feet. All
indications are that the flight conditions will continue to
worsen through the morning, and there is a 25% chance for dense
fog during the early morning departures. Model guidance now
expects LIFR-IFR conditions to persist through the day Friday, but
there will certainly be some clearing regionally in the afternoon
that may bring a brief respite.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 228 AM PDT Fri Aug 1 2025

Fresh to strong northwesterly breezes will prevail with widespread
near-gale to gale force gusts on Sunday and Monday. Seas will
remain  moderate to rough through Tuesday.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this
     evening for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Behringer
LONG TERM....Behringer
AVIATION...Flynn
MARINE...Sarment

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